Expert prediction on the possibility of a US economic recession by 2025 with key factors explained.
Samantha LaDuc, the founder of LaDuc Capital and a macroeconomic strategist, has announced her new prediction regarding the likelihood of an economic recession in the US by the end of 2025. She considers the divergence in short-term and long-term bond yields as a key factor in predicting the recession. According to LaDuc, the main concern lies not in when these divergences reverse but in when they return to a positive and normal slope. Historical data indicates that this pattern has consistently been a reliable indicator of an economic recession. This comes as Goldman Sachs recently reduced its recession probability forecast from 20 to 15 percent.
