After hitting a price floor of $92,458 on December 23rd, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 6.5% growth and has now surpassed the $98,000 resistance. This price increase follows a 14.5% drop after reaching a record high of $108,275 on December 17, restoring traders’ confidence in the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin derivative markets remain neutral to bullish, indicating resilience to price fluctuations. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts trade at a 12% premium over the spot market, reflecting strong demand for long positions. On the other hand, Bitcoin put options trade at a 2% discount compared to call options, a trend that has been consistent over the past two weeks. Recent growth in traditional financial markets has also contributed to the rise in Bitcoin prices. The S&P 500 recovered its monthly loss on December 24th, and the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.59%. This reflects higher inflation expectations or increased government debt. In these conditions, scarce assets like stocks and Bitcoin perform better. However, concerns about a global economic downturn have limited Bitcoin’s upward movement. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remains high at around 64%. The US Federal Reserve has reduced its interest rate forecast, now considering only two rate cuts by 2025. In margin markets, the long-to-short position ratio on the OKX exchange favors buying with a leverage of up to 25x. Ratios above 40x indicate excessive confidence, while those below 5x indicate bearish sentiment. Overall, derivative and margin markets indicate an upward trend. Despite unprecedented capital outflows from the Bitcoin BlackRock ETF on December 24th, the price stability of this digital currency has strengthened hopes for it to reach $105,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $98,260.
