Solana (SOL) seems to be in the early stages of an improvement trend, and network adoption growth can support its long-term price increase. Despite experiencing a 22% surge after testing the $180 support on February 3, Solana is still 27% below its historical peak on January 19. This decline has weakened traders’ sentiments, which is also evident in the futures market. The key sentiment index in the futures market has dropped below the neutral level. Usually, monthly Solana futures contracts are traded at a higher price than the spot price, indicating extra seller risk due to the longer settlement period. In normal market conditions, the annual premiums for these contracts vary between 5% to 10%. A drop below this range indicates a decrease in demand from buyers. Although discounts in Solana futures trading may signal trader hesitation, historical data questions the accuracy of this index. In many cases, large investors and arbitrage desks mispredict market derivative trends. An example of such a situation occurred last October when, after a 13% price drop, the futures trading premium dropped to 2%. However, Solana’s price continued to grow by 58% over 40 days, reaching $222, indicating that market derivatives sentiments are usually a lagging indicator. To assess whether Solana can retest $260 in the short term, investors should also examine key network indicators such as usage trends, transaction fees, and potential growth factors. Data shows that the number of active addresses in the top 10 decentralized applications on Solana increased by 21% in a month, while Base network decreased by 27% and Poligon and Ethereum faced declines of 17% and 15% respectively. Additionally, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Solana programs grew by 5.5% in 30 days, and its market share increased from 6.7% in October to 9.5%. Moreover, Solana’s monthly revenue from fees was $246 million, surpassing Ethereum’s $133 million revenue. Ultimately, despite some challenges, increased Solana adoption can strengthen SOL’s price growth in the long run.
